How Senate Republicans are Implementing the Lessons Learned from 2022 Losses
Senate Republicans had a very poor showing in the 2022 elections. What did they learn from losses across the country, and what are they doing differently this time?
Why it matters that the NRSC is endorsing candidates in primaries this cycle, and why this ambitious strategy could go terribly wrong
How Senate Republicans are trying to avoid a 2022 repeat in 2024
In 2022, House Republicans won the popular vote and flipped the lower chamber of Congress. However, on the other side of the Capitol building, the story was the total opposite: Senate Republicans lost a seat, so Democrats increased their majority and expanded their control of the upper chamber. Senate Republicans lost almost every single competitive race, failed to topple vulnerable incumbents in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, or New Hampshire, and, critically, failed to hold control of Pennsylvania’s open race. This was a historic election - it was the first since 2004 that the President’s party gained Senate seats. This disastrous showing for Republicans was largely pinned down to nominating extreme, inexperienced, sometimes scandal-ridden, and ultimately unelectable Senate candidates, which forced voters who disapproved of the President to vote for Senate Democrats. Republicans blamed “candidate quality” for these losses, and are taking extra steps to prevent the “candidate quality” problem from resurfacing in 2024.
2024 is a golden chance for Republicans to flip the Senate. In my 10 Senate Seats Most Likely to Flip, Democrats are defending the eight most competitive seats, the top three of which are in states Trump won in 2020 and Republicans won in 2022. Before Republicans celebrate, Democrats have strong, popular incumbents who have won with a similar electorate in many of these states. This also means that Democrats do not have to deal with messy primaries and can generally get an instant head start in fundraising efforts. 2022 proved that the wrong candidate could lose a winnable race, and Senate Republicans are going all out to ensure the more electable candidate advances to the general election.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is the campaign arm of Senate Republicans. Its only purpose is to elect Republicans to the Senate, and it raises money and support for Republican candidates in Senate races. In 2022, the NRSC was led by Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL). Scott’s belief that Washington should not interfere in statewide primaries resulted in the NRSC adopting a neutral stance in the primaries and supporting whatever candidate Republican voters chose. While the NRSC’s voice was not heard, former President Donald Trump’s was. Losing candidates such as Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, Adam Laxalt in Nevada, Herschel Walker in Georgia, Blake Masters in Arizona, and Don Bolduc in New Hampshire largely embraced Trump and earned his endorsement, which won them their primaries and cost them the general election.
Following the midterms, Scott was ousted as NRSC chair and replaced by Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT). In 2024, Trump’s candidacy for President means that his voice could be louder, and his endorsement has the potential to carry more weight than it did in 2022. The looming possibility of Trump’s hand-picked candidates winning primaries and losing to Democrats has led to Daines’ NRSC endorsing candidates in primaries. This is a calculated effort to nominate less extreme, more electable candidates in the general election and increase Republican chances of flipping seats. However, with high reward comes high risk - should Trump endorse primary opponents, the NRSC would be in an indirect face-off with the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination and risk an embarrassing and party-dividing loss. Daines hopes that the NRSC’s endorsement will both dissuade the former President from opposing Senate Republicans and convince enough Republican voters to vote for a more electable candidate in the primary. Furthermore, Daines individually endorsed Trump’s 2024 campaign, trying to align an NRSC endorsement with a Trump endorsement and avoid a scenario in which Trump and the NRSC endorse different candidates.
So far, the NRSC has endorsed candidates in West Virginia, Montana, Nevada, and Indiana. Indiana is a safe Republican hold, so I will not focus on that race and instead focus on the three battleground races. Each of the NRSC-chosen candidates faces a more conservative challenger, and the winners of these primaries could determine not just the 2024 election but the NRSC’s future primary strategy.
If the NRSC-endorsed candidates lose their primaries, there are three massive pressing issues for Republicans:
Losing the general election
If the same “candidate quality” issue that hurt Republicans in 2022 resurfaces in 2024, nominating candidates to the right of the NRSC-endorsed candidates will hurt Republicans in the general election and could result in Democrats holding on to crucial swing seats and the Senate majority.
Washington is no longer able to choose candidates/voters rejecting Washington's “establishment” shows that they have no control over their party
If Republican voters reject the NRSC-endorsed candidate, it means that congressional Republicans do not reflect voters’ vision for the party. This is telling about the future direction of the Republican party, and Republicans will have more work to do to win independents.
Confusion for the future - if not interfering fails, and interfering fails, what works? How can the NRSC/Republicans avoid the candidate quality problem?
If NRSC-endorsed candidates lose primaries, the NRSC needs to figure out how to prevent this candidate quality issue from resurfacing in 2026 and future elections. Moreover, 2024 is a much more favorable Senate map than 2026 for Republicans, and if candidate quality continues to result in Republicans losing winnable races, a serious reset will be needed.
West Virginia - incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin has not announced 2024 plans.
NRSC-endorsed candidate: Gov. Jim Justice
Rep. Alex Mooney’s (WV-02) refusal to back out of the race, more conservative positions, and immense fundraising lead are key drivers behind the NRSC’s decision to endorse Gov. Jim Justice. Polling shows that Justice is far more likely to defeat Manchin, and Republicans are not willing to take any unnecessary risks in ensuring that this seat changes hands.
Sen. Joe Manchin’s seat seems increasingly likely to flip, especially as Manchin eyes a Presidential run. This is a golden opportunity for Republicans to grab a seat, as West Virginia is one of the most solidly Republican states in the country. Trump won West Virginia by 38.9 points in 2020, the second largest margin of victory by either candidate in any state, behind Trump in Wyoming. In 2018, Manchin won by 3.2 points in a strong year for Democrats. In 2020, Justice won reelection by 33.3 points, and it comes as a surprise to nobody that the incumbent Republican Governor is the favorite to take on Manchin. Justice leads Mooney in all polls so far, and is well positioned to win the nomination over the Freedom Caucus member. Mooney has endorsements from Sens. Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Mike Lee, as well as backing from the Club for Growth, CPAC, and other major Conservative funds. As per the latest FEC filings, Mooney has nearly twice as much cash as Justice, and has more than $1.5 million cash on hand, nearly twice that of Justice’s.
Montana - incumbent Sen. Jon Tester is running for reelection.
NRSC-endorsed candidate: Tim Sheehy
The looming possibility of a repeat of Montana’s 2018 election between Sen. Jon Tester and Rep. Matt Rosendale (MT-02) caused the NRSC to endorse Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL who became a businessman and has no political experience.
In perhaps the most intense and personal upcoming Senate race, Montana’s Junior Senator (Daines) leads the charge to oust Montana’s Senior Senator. Rosendale, the ultra-conservative Freedom Caucus member, lost this race by 3.6 points in 2018, and Republicans worry that his far-right views will not win over moderate Republicans and independents that have already elected Tester three times. Although Rosendale has not officially entered the race, he is widely expected to do so soon, and polls have showed him dominating the primary field. A June poll between Rosendale and Sheehy, the NRSC-backed candidate, shows Rosendale up by 54 points. This endorsement is a high-risk, high-reward move by the NRSC. Daines is fighting an uphill battle in his home state, and faces the prospect of gigantic embarrassment if not just his endorsement, but also Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte’s endorsement and Rep. Ryan Zinke’s (MT-01) endorsement fails to persuade voters to vote against Rosendale. National Republicans and Montana Republicans have gone all in to prevent a 2018 rematch, which would drastically increase the likelihood that Tester wins a fourth term.
Nevada - incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen is running for reelection.
NRSC-endorsed candidate: Sam Brown
Jim Marchant, the failed election-denying Republican candidate for Nevada’s Secretary of State, is running another statewide campaign, this time for the Senate. After his tenure as a Nevada state legislator, Marchant has won the Republican primary and lost to Democrat Rep. Steven Horsford in the general election to represent Nevada in the House in 2020, before losing the Secretary of State election in 2022. Nevada is a prime pickup opportunity for Republicans - Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto won reelection by less than 1 point in 2022 - and the wrong candidate could easily lose this race. The NRSC has endorsed Sam Brown, a former Army Captain who came second in the Republican primary in Nevada’s 2022 Senate race. Brown has never had this sort of backing before, and Sen. Mitch McConnell and Daines are reportedly prepared to do whatever it takes to push him past Marchant and into the general. It is a risk worth taking - Marchant just lost a statewide race, and his nomination has the potential to harm Republicans up and down the ticket, including the presidential race. It is in the NRSC’s best interest to back Brown instead.
Photo by Matthew Brown: Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT, Left) is up for reelection in 2024, and Montana’s other Senator, Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT, Right), is leading the national effort to flip his seat.